Brent crude spikes, WTI follows. Gasoline prices at pump rise within days.
- Brent at $87
- Brent futures +21.0% (1m)
- WTI futures +18.1% (1m)
- TankerMap traffic: 0.6/day vs 21/day normal (3% of normal)
- TankerMap exact-zone vessels: 10
Score 527 / HEAVY STRESS, down 11 points week-over-week — direction is improving from a very high base.
What follows is the supporting evidence: which signals fired, how today compares to recent history, and what the cascade is showing.
Today’s risk score is 527 (uncapped raw total). That’s down 110 points from yesterday, and down 11 over the past week. For how this compares to past economic crises, see Historical Parallels.
1. Where the score is now — Today’s raw risk score is 527. Yesterday’s snapshot was 637 (down 110 points). One week ago it was 538. One month ago it was 604. The score number and its direction are more informative than the named level when conditions stay at the top of the scale.
2. How we calculate it — Each detected signal adds points (leading macro/fundamental signals are weighted 1.5× vs lagging technical signals). Signals span VIX, drawdowns, death crosses, macro (FRED), fundamentals, and breadth. The raw total is 527; we also show a 0–100 capped score (100) for side-by-side comparison.
3. What the named level means — The level HEAVY STRESS maps the raw score to a bucket on this model’s scale (Low → Moderate → Elevated → High → Critical → Severe → Extreme → Catastrophic). It tells you how many signals are stacking, not what will happen next. It is a model severity label, not a forecast, not a bank rating, and not personalized advice.
4. Snapshots and history — Each weekday build saves a daily snapshot. The trend chips above show how today’s score compares to prior snapshots (1 day, 1 week, 1 month). History accumulates automatically across builds so you can track direction over time.
| Signal | Value | Change | Status | Read | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-3M curveT10Y3M | 0.69% | -0.04 | neutral | Healthy spread between short and long-term rates | Jul 27 |
| 10Y-2Y curveT10Y2Y | 0.34% | -0.02 | warning | Yield curve nearly flat — watch for inversion | Jul 27 |
| High-yield spreadBAMLH0A0HYM2 | 2.79% | +0.02 | neutral | Credit markets calm | Jul 24 |
| BBB corporate spreadBAMLC0A4CBBB | 0.99% | +0.01 | neutral | Investment-grade (BBB) spread within non-crisis band | Jul 24 |
| 10Y TreasuryDGS10 | 4.69% | -0.02 | neutral | 10Y in typical range for directional read (official Treasury/FRED) | Jul 24 |
| 2Y TreasuryDGS2 | 4.33% | -0.04 | neutral | Policy-sensitive front-end yield (use with 10Y for curve shape) | Jul 24 |
Yield curve. In the measures we track, the curve is not inverted right now — one classic warning light is off, though other risks can still show up elsewhere.
Corporate borrowing costs. Those spreads are not flashing our “credit stress” rule right now — think calmer corporate funding conditions than in a stressed credit episode (still watch the detailed table above).
Bank lending (aggregate). Total bank credit grew in the latest reading — consistent with more borrowing in the economy at a high level.
Federal Reserve balance sheet. The latest weekly change was moderate — a backdrop indicator for liquidity and asset holdings.
Treasury yields. The 2-year (sensitive to Fed expectations) is about 4.33%; the 10-year (longer financing and mortgage anchor) about 4.69%. When short rates sit well above long rates, markets are often weighing slower growth or future cuts — compare with the curve rows in the macro table.
Reality check. These sentences are simple rules on top of delayed public data — orientation for people you care about, not trading instructions or deposit advice.
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | S&P 500 | $7,413.18 | +0.07% | -0.60% | +0.75% | 39 | GC |
| ^DJI | Dow Jones Industrial Average | $52,210.08 | +0.96% | +0.12% | +0.70% | 38 | GC |
| ^IXIC | NASDAQ Composite | $24,932.08 | -0.82% | -2.30% | -2.14% | 33 | GC |
| ^RUT | Russell 2000 | $2,948.04 | +0.27% | -0.48% | -1.29% | 39 | GC |
| ^VIX | CBOE Volatility Index | $19.05 | +2.04% | +2.14% | +0.85% | 60 | DC |
| ^TNX | CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No | $4.64 | -1.32% | +2.20% | +5.43% | 65 | GC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BZ=F | Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ | $87.08 | -1.45% | -4.32% | +20.96% | 61 | GC |
| CL=F | Crude Oil Sep 26 | $81.73 | -1.07% | -3.75% | +18.06% | 62 | GC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXON | Axon Enterprise, Inc. | $525.48 | +6.83% | +2.98% | +15.05% | 30 | OS DC |
| HUBS | HubSpot, Inc. | $223.01 | +8.84% | -3.55% | +30.97% | 57 | DC |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | $49.97 | +7.86% | -0.68% | +13.00% | 47 | DC |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $234.39 | +7.22% | +2.62% | -0.21% | 60 | GC |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $195.80 | -4.72% | +0.13% | +6.71% | 70 | OB GC |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $396.62 | -6.80% | -4.59% | +5.05% | 47 | GC |
| ABNB | Airbnb, Inc. | $146.86 | +6.75% | +0.60% | +1.70% | 49 | GC |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | $30.84 | +6.20% | -0.03% | +19.67% | 57 | DC |
| CELH | Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $28.79 | +6.16% | -2.14% | +2.02% | 34 | DC |
| MNDY | monday.com Ltd. | $82.10 | +6.03% | +6.97% | +22.37% | 47 | DC |
| LMND | Lemonade, Inc. | $61.99 | +3.08% | -8.09% | +10.72% | 22 | OS DC |
| DV | DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | $10.95 | +5.49% | -4.12% | +5.80% | 41 | DC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XYZ | Block, Inc. | $81.24 | +5.30% | +2.46% | +9.67% | 60 | GC |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $494.95 | -5.17% | -1.71% | -7.06% | 46 | GC |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | $218.42 | +2.65% | +12.33% | +17.06% | 71 | OB |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | $196.51 | -4.99% | -3.33% | +0.39% | 50 | GC |
| UPST | Upstart Holdings, Inc. | $27.49 | +2.08% | -4.61% | -16.62% | 25 | OS DC |
| VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | $47.32 | +2.03% | +8.78% | +4.46% | 83 | OB GC |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | $119.90 | +4.27% | -1.22% | -21.08% | 33 | DC |
| DXCM | DexCom, Inc. | $73.37 | +4.10% | -4.28% | +5.19% | 52 | GC |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | $115.58 | -3.89% | -0.09% | +8.62% | 64 | GC |
| XOM | ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation | $154.77 | -1.38% | +4.32% | +12.52% | 74 | OB GC |
| ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $58.29 | +3.72% | +1.52% | -11.17% | 31 | — |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | $309.22 | -1.22% | -16.33% | -17.57% | 17 | OS DC |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $336.91 | +1.17% | +3.16% | +22.45% | 72 | OB GC |
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | $516.89 | -3.61% | -1.68% | -22.62% | 43 | GC |
| UBER | Uber Technologies, Inc. | $68.18 | +3.40% | -5.53% | -5.63% | 31 | DC |
| NFLX | Netflix, Inc. | $70.40 | +0.44% | +4.14% | -0.71% | 30 | OS DC |
| DE | Deere & Company | $625.02 | +2.46% | +4.65% | +4.31% | 46 | GC |
| GS | Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) | $1,048.23 | -2.46% | -1.59% | -2.66% | 49 | GC |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | $270.67 | +2.23% | +1.13% | +2.32% | 37 | DC |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | $326.56 | +2.13% | -7.22% | -4.99% | 31 | GC |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | $111.74 | +2.07% | -0.41% | -3.49% | 51 | DC |
| DDOG | Datadog, Inc. | $251.86 | +2.03% | -4.31% | +13.99% | 47 | GC |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | $389.10 | +1.94% | -3.28% | +10.28% | 50 | DC |
| V | Visa Inc. | $362.53 | +1.91% | +0.54% | +9.68% | 59 | GC |
| DIS | Walt Disney Company (The) | $96.65 | +1.90% | +0.25% | -0.67% | 48 | DC |
| CAT | Caterpillar, Inc. | $873.28 | -1.74% | +1.04% | -17.23% | 32 | GC |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $180.11 | -1.73% | -9.26% | +6.16% | 40 | GC |
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor Corporation | $97.73 | +1.56% | -8.23% | -7.54% | 36 | GC |
| AMT | American Tower Corporation (REI | $166.74 | +1.27% | -1.95% | -4.43% | 60 | DC |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur | $399.09 | -1.07% | -0.80% | -8.25% | 32 | GC |
| NKE | Nike, Inc. | $42.14 | +1.06% | -3.06% | +3.03% | 45 | DC |
| NEE | NextEra Energy, Inc. | $88.83 | -1.06% | +0.94% | +1.29% | 52 | — |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | $265.95 | +0.97% | +6.88% | +8.60% | 49 | GC |
| JPM | JP Morgan Chase & Co. | $356.20 | +0.85% | +5.11% | +6.77% | 66 | GC |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $417.64 | -0.74% | -0.93% | +0.51% | 43 | GC |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | $91.67 | -0.70% | -5.55% | -31.01% | 32 | GC |
| BRK-B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New | $497.18 | +0.45% | +1.21% | +1.92% | 42 | DC |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | $231.39 | -0.31% | -7.44% | +1.93% | 34 | GC |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | $593.87 | -0.22% | -8.05% | +9.39% | 45 | DC |
| HON | Honeywell International Inc. | $245.75 | -0.21% | +9.21% | +3.04% | 65 | GC |
| FCX | Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. | $62.72 | +0.19% | +6.68% | +0.12% | 58 | GC |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | $1,197.53 | +0.13% | +4.41% | +6.19% | 41 | GC |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | $256.91 | -0.00% | +0.95% | +10.15% | 56 | GC |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | $951.58 | +nan% | +1.85% | +1.15% | 41 | — |
| PG | Procter & Gamble Company (The) | $148.63 | +nan% | +0.41% | +0.83% | 37 | DC |
| O | Realty Income Corporation | $65.50 | -0.15% | +0.49% | +6.03% | 60 | GC |
| CWAN | Clearwater Analytics Holdings, | $24.56 | — | — | — | — | GC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | State Street Energy Select Sect | $58.36 | -2.11% | +0.72% | +7.89% | 71 | OB GC |
| XLP | State Street Consumer Staples S | $85.36 | +2.58% | +0.20% | +1.09% | 55 | GC |
| XLC | State Street Communication Serv | $107.66 | +2.16% | -2.70% | +1.05% | 43 | DC |
| XLY | State Street Consumer Discretio | $110.84 | +1.91% | -3.98% | -3.68% | 31 | DC |
| XLRE | State Street Real Estate Select | $45.76 | +1.80% | +0.75% | +2.81% | 67 | GC |
| XLU | State Street Utilities Select S | $45.68 | -1.32% | +1.65% | -0.37% | 50 | — |
| XLF | State Street Financial Select S | $56.88 | +1.01% | +1.50% | +6.42% | 58 | — |
| XLK | State Street Technology Select | $174.30 | -0.90% | -0.80% | -5.56% | 43 | GC |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | $374.63 | +0.73% | +1.91% | +1.40% | 47 | DC |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 40 | $692.85 | +0.72% | +0.60% | +0.26% | 47 | GC |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund | $292.91 | +0.60% | +0.21% | -2.01% | 44 | GC |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | $83.75 | +0.60% | -0.17% | -3.77% | 38 | DC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV | State Street Health Care Select | $163.40 | +0.51% | +2.61% | +4.99% | 47 | — |
| VXUS | Vanguard Total International St | $83.79 | +0.47% | +0.87% | -1.52% | 45 | GC |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 | $682.12 | -0.31% | -2.00% | -4.78% | 37 | GC |
| XLI | State Street Industrial Select | $183.20 | +0.30% | +2.85% | -0.50% | 53 | GC |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | $72.46 | +0.29% | -0.55% | -1.15% | 34 | DC |
| XLB | State Street Materials Select S | $51.39 | +0.25% | +2.72% | -0.87% | 49 | GC |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | $365.18 | +0.10% | -0.29% | +0.62% | 41 | GC |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF T | $739.09 | +0.02% | -0.40% | +0.65% | 42 | GC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSD | Bitcoin | $63,426.70 | -0.47% | -2.49% | +0.20% | 42 | DC |
| ETHUSD | Ethereum | $1,874.43 | -0.86% | -0.14% | +5.99% | 48 | DC |
| SOLUSD | Solana | $73.09 | -1.42% | -3.65% | -9.37% | 36 | DC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | EUR/USD | $1.14 | -0.25% | -0.45% | -0.17% | 44 | DC |
| GBPUSD | GBP/USD | $1.33 | -0.52% | -1.12% | +0.64% | 45 | DC |
| USDJPY | USD/JPY | $163.93 | +0.19% | +0.89% | +1.32% | 68 | GC |
| Ticker | Health | EPS Trend | Insiders | Analyst Upside | D/E | ROE | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPLApple Inc. | strong | improving | selling | -5.4% | 0.80 | 141.5% | 100% |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | strong | deteriorating | selling | +43.1% | 0.30 | 34.0% | 100% |
| ORCLOracle Corporation | moderate | improving | selling | +107.0% | 3.89 | 53.4% | 100% |
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +31.1% | 0.19 | 48.7% | 86% |
| AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +35.3% | 0.53 | 24.3% | 86% |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | strong | improving | selling | +54.1% | 0.07 | 114.3% | 100% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | strong | improving | selling | +26.2% | 0.49 | -10.7% | 100% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +15.8% | 0.06 | 8.1% | 86% |
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufactur | strong | improving | buying | +34.7% | 0.15 | 40.0% | 100% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +21.4% | 0.30 | 39.7% | 100% |
| TSLATesla, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +29.7% | 0.18 | 4.7% | 100% |
| METAMeta Platforms, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +39.1% | 0.36 | 32.9% | 100% |
| JPMJP Morgan Chase & Co. | strong | improving | selling | +4.2% | — | 17.8% | 71% |
| VVisa Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +11.2% | 0.67 | 60.3% | 100% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | strong | neutral | selling | +1.7% | 0.58 | 25.7% | 86% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +6.8% | 0.18 | -0.2% | 100% |
| DDOGDatadog, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +5.4% | 0.32 | 3.9% | 100% |
| HUBSHubSpot, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +22.4% | 0.12 | 5.0% | 100% |
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corporation | strong | improving | neutral | +25.7% | 0.21 | 42.6% | 71% |
| AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +25.8% | 0.52 | 6.8% | 100% |
| TPLTexas Pacific Land Corporation | moderate | deteriorating | buying | +11.8% | 0.01 | 36.5% | 100% |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | -9.3% | 0.80 | 54.0% | 100% |
| TOSTToast, Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +12.4% | 0.01 | 22.5% | 86% |
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | strong | neutral | neutral | +6.1% | 1.39 | 107.5% | 71% |
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | moderate | neutral | neutral | +13.8% | 0.69 | 14.2% | 71% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | moderate | neutral | selling | +4.2% | — | — | 57% |
| DXCMDexCom, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +17.4% | 0.47 | 35.6% | 100% |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan, Inc. | moderate | neutral | selling | +14.0% | 0.32 | 14.8% | 86% |
| XOMExxonMobil Holdings Corporation | moderate | deteriorating | selling | +7.9% | 0.18 | 9.9% | 100% |
| COPConocoPhillips | moderate | neutral | selling | +21.9% | 0.36 | 11.3% | 86% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | moderate | neutral | selling | +17.5% | 0.33 | 0.5% | 86% |
| WMTWalmart Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +23.7% | 0.75 | 24.1% | 86% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | strong | deteriorating | selling | +13.2% | 0.60 | 29.2% | 100% |
| PGProcter & Gamble Company (The) | moderate | deteriorating | selling | +10.1% | 0.68 | 31.1% | 100% |
| NKENike, Inc. | moderate | deteriorating | buying | +21.3% | 0.74 | 22.1% | 100% |
| MCDMcDonald's Corporation | weak | deteriorating | selling | +20.0% | — | — | 71% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +7.0% | 0.33 | 32.3% | 100% |
| CATCaterpillar, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +11.1% | 2.31 | 51.3% | 100% |
| HONHoneywell International Inc. | moderate | deteriorating | neutral | +3.8% | 1.85 | 46.6% | 86% |
| RTXRTX Corporation | strong | improving | selling | +4.1% | 0.57 | 12.3% | 100% |
| DEDeere & Company | weak | deteriorating | neutral | +3.7% | 3.76 | 18.3% | 86% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | strong | improving | neutral | +52.7% | 0.48 | 35.3% | 86% |
| GSGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) | moderate | improving | selling | +8.5% | 6.47 | 17.0% | 86% |
| BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc. New | strong | neutral | neutral | +4.7% | 0.18 | 10.5% | 71% |
| XYZBlock, Inc. | moderate | improving | selling | +14.8% | 0.38 | 3.7% | 100% |
| AMTAmerican Tower Corporation (REI | moderate | neutral | neutral | +28.8% | 4.45 | 30.0% | 71% |
| ORealty Income Corporation | moderate | neutral | neutral | +3.8% | 0.73 | 2.8% | 71% |
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | weak | neutral | selling | +11.6% | 1.62 | 11.7% | 86% |
| NFLXNetflix, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +34.7% | 0.55 | 49.5% | 100% |
| DISWalt Disney Company (The) | moderate | deteriorating | neutral | +31.9% | 0.41 | 11.0% | 86% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +8.2% | 1.79 | 15.8% | 100% |
| FOURShift4 Payments, Inc. | moderate | neutral | neutral | +21.8% | 2.57 | 9.9% | 71% |
| CELHCelsius Holdings, Inc. | strong | deteriorating | neutral | +91.9% | 0.22 | 8.1% | 86% |
| LMNDLemonade, Inc. | moderate | neutral | selling | +3.6% | 0.39 | -26.1% | 86% |
| UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc. | distressed | deteriorating | selling | +44.8% | 2.70 | 7.0% | 100% |
| ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc. | distressed | deteriorating | selling | +42.9% | 1.12 | -37.8% | 100% |
| MNDYmonday.com Ltd. | strong | improving | neutral | +32.2% | 0.23 | 12.8% | 86% |
| DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | strong | improving | neutral | +19.3% | 0.09 | 5.2% | 86% |
| CWANClearwater Analytics Holdings, | moderate | neutral | selling | -0.5% | 0.42 | -3.1% | 86% |
| Indicator | Value | Change | Signal | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core macro — leading indicators | ||||
| 10Y-2Y Yield SpreadT10Y2Y | 0.34 | -0.02 | warning | Yield curve nearly flat — watch for inversion |
| 10Y-3M Yield SpreadT10Y3M | 0.69 | -0.04 | neutral | Healthy spread between short and long-term rates |
| High Yield Credit SpreadBAMLH0A0HYM2 | 2.79 | +0.02 | neutral | Credit markets calm |
| Initial Unemployment ClaimsICSA | 187,000.00 | -22,000.00 | neutral | Labor market stable |
| Consumer Confidence (UMich)UMCSENT | 44.80 | -5.00 | critical | Consumer confidence at recessionary levels |
| Fed Funds RateFEDFUNDS | 3.63 | +0.00 | neutral | Fed funds rate holding at 3.63% |
| M2 Money SupplyM2SL | 23,052.30 | +247.80 | neutral | Money supply stable or growing |
| Unemployment RateUNRATE | 4.20 | -0.10 | neutral | Labor market healthy |
| Banking system — system-wide aggregates (not CAMELS / not one bank) | ||||
| Total Bank Credit (All Commercial Banks)TOTBKCR | 19,740.98 | +96.75 | neutral | Bank credit expanding — typical growth environment signal |
| Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet)WALCL | 6,747,378.00 | +4,350.00 | neutral | Modest weekly change in Fed assets (policy / runoff) |
| Bond market — Treasuries & investment-grade spreads | ||||
| 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity YieldDGS10 | 4.69 | -0.02 | neutral | 10Y in typical range for directional read (official Treasury/FRED) |
| 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity YieldDGS2 | 4.33 | -0.04 | neutral | Policy-sensitive front-end yield (use with 10Y for curve shape) |
| ICE BofA BBB US Corporate OASBAMLC0A4CBBB | 0.99 | +0.01 | neutral | Investment-grade (BBB) spread within non-crisis band |
| inflation | ||||
| CPI All ItemsCPIAUCSL | 332.57 | -1.41 | bearish | CPI above target (+3.2% YoY) |
| PPI All CommoditiesPPIACO | 286.83 | -3.66 | bearish | Producer prices falling — demand destruction signal |
| supply_chain | ||||
| US Regular Gasoline PriceGASREGW | 4.00 | +0.15 | warning | Gasoline at $4.00/gal — elevated energy costs |
| Brent Crude Oil (FRED)DCOILBRENTEU | 86.99 | +1.98 | bearish | Brent at $87 — above long-term average |
| Industrial Production IndexINDPRO | 102.64 | +0.08 | neutral | Industrial production stable |
| Capacity Utilization: Total IndustryTCU | 76.09 | -0.01 | neutral | Capacity utilization at 76.1% — normal range |
| Manufacturing Employment (All Employees)MANEMP | 12,598.00 | +3.00 | neutral | Manufacturing employment stable |
| Durable Goods New OrdersDGORDER | 334,772.00 | +1,066.00 | bullish | Durable goods orders growing (+10.5% YoY) |
| Total Manufacturing New OrdersAMTMNO | 657,373.00 | -8,522.00 | bullish | Manufacturing orders growing (+8.9% YoY) |
| PPI: Nitrogenous Fertilizer MaterialsWPU06790303 | 267.62 | -0.03 | neutral | Nitrogen fertilizer PPI stable (+4.5% YoY) |
| Component | Index | YoY% | MoM Chg | Signal | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI Food at Home | 321.45 | +2.7% | +0.61 | neutral | YoY +2.7% — within normal range |
| CPI Food Away from Home | 395.63 | +3.1% | +0.90 | bearish | YoY +3.1% — above Fed 2% target |
| CPI Shelter | 428.50 | +3.0% | +0.50 | bearish | YoY +3.0% — above Fed 2% target |
| CPI Rent of Primary Residence | 447.40 | +2.6% | +0.67 | neutral | YoY +2.6% — within normal range |
| CPI Energy | 319.29 | +16.2% | -19.35 | critical | YoY +16.2% — running far above headline CPI |
| CPI Medical Care | 592.28 | +1.3% | -0.77 | neutral | YoY +1.3% — within normal range |
| CPI Used Cars and Trucks | 179.59 | -2.3% | -0.41 | bearish | YoY -2.3% — deflationary (demand weakness or correction) |
| CPI Core (ex Food & Energy) | 336.06 | +2.2% | -0.06 | neutral | YoY +2.2% — within normal range |
| Measure | Value | Signal | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate | 2.29% | neutral | Breakeven at 2.29% — anchored near target |
| UMich Inflation Expectations (1yr) | 4.80% | warning | Consumer expects 4.8% inflation — elevated, self-fulfilling risk |
| Median CPI (Cleveland Fed) | 2.11% | neutral | Median CPI at 2.1% — near or below 2% target |
| Trimmed Mean PCE (Dallas Fed) | 2.41% | neutral | Trimmed Mean PCE at 2.4% — near or below 2% target |
| Severity | Type | Category | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| critical | leading | macro | Macro: Consumer Confidence (UMich) | Consumer confidence at recessionary levels |
| critical | leading | macro | Macro: CPI Energy | YoY +16.2% — running far above headline CPI |
| critical | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | TSLA dropped -16.33% this week. |
| critical | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | TPL dropped -6.80% today. |
| critical | lagging | technical | Death cross breadth | 28 watched assets have 50-day MA below 200-day MA. Names: ^VIX, MSFT, ORCL, TSLA, META, HUBS, AXON, TOST (+20 more). |
| critical | lagging | technical | Signal convergence | Systemic convergence: 30 risk signals across 4 categories firing simultaneously — historically precedes sustained downturns. |
| warning | leading | macro | Macro: 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Yield curve nearly flat — watch for inversion |
| warning | leading | macro | Macro: US Regular Gasoline Price | Gasoline at $4.00/gal — elevated energy costs |
| warning | leading | macro | Macro: UMich Inflation Expectations (1yr) | Consumer expects 4.8% inflation — elevated, self-fulfilling risk |
| warning | leading | fundamental | EPS revisions breadth | 13 watched stocks have deteriorating analyst EPS estimates (30d). Examples: MSFT, TPL, XOM, COST, PG, NKE, MCD, HON (+5 more). |
| warning | leading | fundamental | Insider selling breadth | 42 watched stocks show insider selling activity. Names: AAPL, MSFT, ORCL, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, INTC, AMD (+34 more). |
| warning | leading | fundamental | Fundamental distress breadth | 2 watched stocks flagged as fundamental distress (weak health screen). Examples: UPST, ASTS. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | GOOGL dropped -7.22% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | AMZN dropped -7.44% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | NVDA dropped -4.99% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | INTC dropped -5.55% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | AMD dropped -5.17% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | AMAT dropped -3.61% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | META dropped -8.05% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | CRWD dropped -9.26% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | DECK dropped -8.23% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | COP dropped -3.89% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | FANG dropped -4.72% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | UBER dropped -5.53% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | LMND dropped -8.09% this week. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | AAPL: RSI at 72.1 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | XOM: RSI at 74.2 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | FANG: RSI at 70.2 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | RTX: RSI at 71.0 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | VZ: RSI at 83.0 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | XLE: RSI at 71.4 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| info | lagging | volatility | VIX Normal | VIX at 19.1 — within normal range. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | TSLA: RSI at 17.2 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | AXON: RSI at 29.6 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | NFLX: RSI at 29.7 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | LMND: RSI at 22.1 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | UPST: RSI at 24.6 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | Cross-category convergence | Risk signals span 4 categories (fundamental, macro, technical, volatility) — cross-domain stress amplification. |
| elevated | leading | macro | Macro: CPI All Items | CPI above target (+3.2% YoY) |
| elevated | leading | macro | Macro: PPI All Commodities | Producer prices falling — demand destruction signal |
| elevated | leading | macro | Macro: Brent Crude Oil (FRED) | Brent at $87 — above long-term average |
| elevated | leading | macro | Macro: CPI Food Away from Home | YoY +3.1% — above Fed 2% target |
| elevated | leading | macro | Macro: CPI Shelter | YoY +3.0% — above Fed 2% target |
| elevated | leading | macro | Macro: CPI Used Cars and Trucks | YoY -2.3% — deflationary (demand weakness or correction) |
Raw sum before cap: 527 → displayed score 100 (max 100).
| Pts | Signal | Ticker | Cat | Sev | Lead/Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | Macro: CPI Energy | macro | critical | leading | |
| 37 | Macro: Consumer Confidence (UMich) | macro | critical | leading | |
| 28 | Insider selling breadth | fundamental | warning | leading | |
| 25 | Signal convergence | technical | critical | lagging | |
| 25 | Large Daily Drop | TPL | volatility | critical | lagging |
| 25 | Large Weekly Drop | TSLA | volatility | critical | lagging |
| 24 | EPS revisions breadth | fundamental | warning | leading | |
| 18 | Death cross breadth | technical | critical | lagging | |
| 17 | Fundamental distress breadth | fundamental | warning | leading | |
| 15 | Macro: 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | macro | warning | leading | |
| 15 | Macro: UMich Inflation Expectations (1yr) | macro | warning | leading | |
| 15 | Macro: US Regular Gasoline Price | macro | warning | leading | |
| 10 | RSI Overbought | AAPL | technical | warning | lagging |
| 10 | RSI Overbought | XOM | technical | warning | lagging |
| 10 | RSI Overbought | FANG | technical | warning | lagging |
Death cross, EPS / distress / insider impacts use breadth signals (scaled sublinearly), not one row per watchlist ticker — see risk legend.
| Crash | Decline | Days to Bottom | Recovery | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panic of 1907 | -48.5% | 440 | 33 months | 0/4 |
| 1929 Great Depression | -86.2% | 998 | 302 months | 0/4 |
| 1937-1938 Recession | -54.5% | 390 | 94 months | 0/4 |
| 1973-1974 Oil Crisis | -48.2% | 630 | 90 months | 3/4 |
| 1987 Black Monday | -33.5% | 101 | 23 months | 0/4 |
| 2000-2002 Dot-Com Bust | -49.1% | 929 | 86 months | 1/4 |
| 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis | -56.8% | 517 | 66 months | 0/4 |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | -33.9% | 33 | 6 months | 1/4 |
| Signal Severity | Lagging | Leading (1.5×) |
|---|---|---|
| Critical | +25 pts | +37 pts |
| Warning | +10 pts | +15 pts |
| Elevated | +5 pts | +7 pts |
| Info | +2 pts | +2 pts |
| Badge | Name | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| DC | Death Cross | The 50-day moving average has dropped below the 200-day moving average. This means recent prices (~2.5 months) are consistently lower than the longer-term average (~10 months) — momentum has shifted downward. It's a lagging indicator: by the time it triggers, the price drop has already happened. Better at confirming a trend than predicting one. When multiple stocks show death crosses simultaneously, it usually reflects broad market weakness rather than individual company problems. |
| GC | Golden Cross | The opposite of a death cross — the 50-day moving average has risen above the 200-day moving average. This is a bullish signal indicating upward momentum. Like the death cross, it's a lagging indicator that confirms a trend already underway. |
| OB | Overbought (RSI ≥ 70) | The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at or above 70, meaning the asset has had strong recent gains and may be due for a pullback. It doesn't mean the price will drop — assets can stay overbought for extended periods in strong uptrends — but it signals that buying pressure may be getting stretched. |
| OS | Oversold (RSI ≤ 30) | RSI is at or below 30, meaning the asset has had sharp recent declines and may be due for a bounce. This can represent a buying opportunity (value investors look for oversold quality assets), but it can also signal that something is fundamentally wrong. Context matters — oversold in a healthy market is different from oversold during a crisis. |
| Term | Full Name | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | Relative Strength Index | A momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100 that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Calculated over the last 14 trading days. Below 30 = oversold (potential bounce), above 70 = overbought (potential pullback), 30–70 = neutral. RSI is a lagging indicator — it shows what momentum has been, not what it will be. |
| 50-day MA | 50-Day Moving Average | The average closing price over the last 50 trading days (~2.5 months). Represents the short-to-medium-term trend. When the current price is above the 50-day MA, the short-term trend is generally positive. |
| 200-day MA | 200-Day Moving Average | The average closing price over the last 200 trading days (~10 months). Represents the long-term trend. Institutional investors often use this as a key support/resistance level. The relationship between the 50-day and 200-day MA produces death cross and golden cross signals. |
| 1D / 1W / 1M | Percentage Change | Price change over the last 1 day, 1 week, or 1 month respectively. Green = positive (price went up), red = negative (price went down). Large single-day or weekly drops trigger warning signals in the risk engine. |
| P/E Ratio | Price-to-Earnings | The stock price divided by earnings per share. Measures how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. A high P/E can mean the stock is overvalued or that investors expect high future growth. A low P/E can mean the stock is undervalued or that the business is struggling. Always compare P/E within the same industry — tech companies normally have higher P/E than banks. |
| D/E | Debt-to-Equity Ratio | Total debt divided by shareholder equity. Measures how much a company relies on borrowing. Below 0.5 = conservatively financed, 0.5–1.0 = moderate, above 2.0 = heavily leveraged. High debt becomes dangerous when interest rates rise or revenue declines. |
| ROE | Return on Equity | Net income divided by shareholder equity. Measures how efficiently a company generates profit from its shareholders' investment. Above 15% is generally strong. Negative ROE means the company is losing money. |
| Short-term 1–4 weeks |
Momentum / technical plays — oversold bounces, mean reversion, technical pattern setups. |
| Medium-term 1–3 months |
Earnings revision plays — improving fundamentals not yet priced in. |
| Long-term 3–12 months |
Value plays — quality businesses at discounted prices with macro tailwinds. |
| Low (1–3) | 3+ signals agree, strong fundamentals, macro supportive, limited downside history. Position: 3–5% |
| Medium (4–6) | 2 signals agree, some data gaps or mixed macro. Position: 1–3% |
| High (7–10) | Single signal, weak fundamentals, adverse macro, or speculative. Position: 0.5–1% |
Opportunities are ranked by risk-adjusted potential, not "low risk / high yield." Higher expected return generally comes with higher risk. The system surfaces the best opportunities at each risk level and is explicit about what could go wrong.
Data points in last 7 days: 93
Starting points from regulators and standard data publishers — useful if you want to read the same underlying official series this report leans on (plus banking disclosure context).