Today’s risk score is 508 (uncapped raw total). That’s up 5 points from yesterday, and up 61 over the past week. For how this compares to past economic crises, see Historical Parallels below.
1. Where the score is now — Today’s raw risk score is 508. Yesterday’s snapshot was 503 (up 5 points). One week ago it was 447. The score number and its direction are more informative than the named level when conditions stay at the top of the scale.
2. How we calculate it — Each detected signal adds points (leading macro/fundamental signals are weighted 1.5× vs lagging technical signals). Signals span VIX, drawdowns, death crosses, macro (FRED), fundamentals, and breadth. The raw total is 508; we also show a 0–100 capped score (100) for side-by-side comparison.
3. What the named level means — The level HEAVY STRESS maps the raw score to a bucket on this model’s scale (Low → Moderate → Elevated → High → Critical → Severe → Extreme → Catastrophic). It tells you how many signals are stacking, not what will happen next. It is a model severity label, not a forecast, not a bank rating, and not personalized advice.
4. Snapshots and history — Each weekday build saves a daily snapshot. The trend chips above show how today’s score compares to prior snapshots (1 day, 1 week, 1 month). History accumulates automatically across builds so you can track direction over time.
| Crash | Decline | Days to Bottom | Recovery | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panic of 1907 | -48.5% | 440 | 33 months | 0/3 |
| 1929 Great Depression | -86.2% | 998 | 302 months | 0/3 |
| 1937-1938 Recession | -54.5% | 390 | 94 months | 0/3 |
| 1973-1974 Oil Crisis | -48.2% | 630 | 90 months | 3/3 |
| 1987 Black Monday | -33.5% | 101 | 23 months | 0/3 |
| 2000-2002 Dot-Com Bust | -49.1% | 929 | 86 months | 1/3 |
| 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis | -56.8% | 517 | 66 months | 0/3 |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | -33.9% | 33 | 6 months | 1/3 |
| Timeframe | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28 – Mar 14, 2026 | Oil Price Shock Brent crude spikes, WTI follows. Gasoline prices at pump rise within days.
Past model window — still active First activated: Mar 30, 2026 | ACTIVE (stress 70%, data 4/4) |
| Mar 14 – Apr 29, 2026 | Energy Cost Cascade Natural gas prices spike (LNG rerouting). Electricity costs rise. Industrial production slows.
| Projected (stress 30%, data 3/3) |
| Apr 14 – Jun 28, 2026 | Helium & Semiconductor Squeeze Semiconductor fabs reduce output. Lead times extend. Helium spot prices surge.
First activated: Mar 30, 2026 | Projected (stress 25%, data 5/5) |
| May 14 – Aug 27, 2026 | Fertilizer & Food Pressure Urea/ammonia prices spike. Planting disrupted. Food inflation visible.
First activated: Mar 31, 2026 | Projected (stress 25%, data 8/8) |
| Jun 13 – Oct 26, 2026 | Pharmaceutical Delays India flags raw material shortages. Generic drug supply chains lengthen. | — (5/5) |
| Aug 12 – Feb 28, 2027 | Industrial Slowdown Petrochemical feedstock shortages. Manufacturing slows. Employment declines. | — (7/7) |
Raw sum before cap: 508 → displayed score 100 (max 100).
| Pts | Signal | Ticker | Cat | Sev | Lead/Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | Macro: Brent Crude Oil (FRED) | macro | critical | leading | |
| 37 | Macro: Consumer Confidence (UMich) | macro | critical | leading | |
| 28 | Insider selling breadth | fundamental | warning | leading | |
| 25 | EPS revisions breadth | fundamental | warning | leading | |
| 25 | Signal convergence | technical | critical | lagging | |
| 25 | Large Weekly Drop | HUBS | volatility | critical | lagging |
| 25 | Large Weekly Drop | NKE | volatility | critical | lagging |
| 18 | Death cross breadth | technical | critical | lagging | |
| 15 | Fundamental distress breadth | fundamental | warning | leading | |
| 15 | Macro: PPI All Commodities | macro | warning | leading | |
| 15 | Macro: US Regular Gasoline Price | macro | warning | leading | |
| 10 | RSI Overbought | JPM | technical | warning | lagging |
| 10 | RSI Overbought | COST | technical | warning | lagging |
| 10 | RSI Overbought | GS | technical | warning | lagging |
| 10 | RSI Overbought | CWAN | technical | warning | lagging |
Death cross, EPS / distress / insider impacts use breadth signals (scaled sublinearly), not one row per watchlist ticker — see risk legend.
| Signal Severity | Lagging | Leading (1.5×) |
|---|---|---|
| Critical | +25 pts | +37 pts |
| Warning | +10 pts | +15 pts |
| Elevated | +5 pts | +7 pts |
| Info | +2 pts | +2 pts |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | S&P 500 | $6,782.81 | +2.51% | +3.90% | -0.19% | 58 | — |
| ^DJI | Dow Jones Industrial Average | $47,909.92 | +2.85% | +3.38% | +0.35% | 64 | GC |
| ^IXIC | NASDAQ Composite | $22,634.99 | +2.80% | +4.84% | -0.27% | 56 | — |
| ^RUT | Russell 2000 | $2,620.46 | +2.97% | +4.97% | +2.62% | 64 | GC |
| ^VIX | CBOE Volatility Index | $21.04 | -18.39% | -16.67% | -17.49% | 42 | GC |
| ^TNX | CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No | $4.29 | -1.20% | -0.46% | +3.75% | 52 | — |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BZ=F | Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ | $96.26 | -11.91% | -18.66% | -2.73% | 43 | GC |
| CL=F | Crude Oil May 26 | $96.50 | -14.56% | -4.81% | +1.83% | 50 | GC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXON | Axon Enterprise, Inc. | $391.53 | +5.00% | -7.81% | -29.97% | 21 | OS DC |
| GS | Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) | $905.75 | +4.81% | +7.06% | +8.86% | 78 | OB GC |
| HUBS | HubSpot, Inc. | $217.98 | -4.23% | -10.70% | -24.01% | 27 | OS DC |
| CAT | Caterpillar, Inc. | $771.58 | +6.51% | +8.91% | +9.47% | 67 | GC |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | $612.42 | +6.50% | +7.04% | -5.32% | 49 | DC |
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor Corporation | $106.35 | +6.07% | +6.25% | +1.95% | 52 | GC |
| JPM | JP Morgan Chase & Co. | $307.97 | +3.55% | +5.23% | +6.77% | 71 | OB DC |
| ABNB | Airbnb, Inc. | $131.40 | +5.15% | +4.05% | -1.96% | 50 | — |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | $125.22 | -4.97% | -5.14% | +7.00% | 53 | GC |
| XYZ | Block, Inc. | $62.83 | +4.77% | +4.40% | -4.13% | 64 | DC |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | $156.22 | -4.69% | -7.92% | +3.84% | 48 | GC |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | $42.15 | +4.67% | -3.61% | -10.77% | 47 | DC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $186.47 | -4.62% | -5.72% | +1.97% | 46 | GC |
| CELH | Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $36.02 | +4.47% | +1.52% | -16.83% | 36 | DC |
| DXCM | DexCom, Inc. | $65.80 | +4.26% | +4.78% | -4.28% | 43 | DC |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $187.53 | +4.22% | +2.85% | -0.41% | 54 | GC |
| ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $96.46 | +4.20% | +16.40% | +7.46% | 54 | GC |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | $1,030.27 | +1.68% | +3.40% | +2.48% | 78 | OB GC |
| MNDY | monday.com Ltd. | $65.64 | -1.60% | -5.02% | -19.02% | 28 | OS DC |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | $127.26 | +3.89% | +2.40% | +2.56% | 63 | GC |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | $317.32 | +3.88% | +10.35% | +3.58% | 56 | GC |
| HON | Honeywell International Inc. | $232.47 | +3.86% | +2.85% | -2.15% | 53 | GC |
| DIS | Walt Disney Company (The) | $99.18 | +3.55% | +2.91% | -2.44% | 49 | DC |
| NKE | Nike, Inc. | $43.13 | +1.03% | -18.35% | -23.70% | 19 | OS DC |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | $221.25 | +3.50% | +6.23% | +3.63% | 61 | DC |
| UPST | Upstart Holdings, Inc. | $27.31 | +3.25% | +6.47% | -2.18% | 56 | DC |
| CWAN | Clearwater Analytics Holdings, | $24.02 | +0.42% | +1.56% | +2.69% | 78 | OB GC |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $448.28 | -0.34% | -5.54% | -16.95% | 23 | OS GC |
| PG | Procter & Gamble Company (The) | $144.90 | +2.55% | +0.32% | -6.65% | 44 | — |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | $211.59 | +2.53% | -2.71% | -6.97% | 55 | GC |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | $953.30 | +2.39% | +3.65% | -5.46% | 59 | GC |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | $182.08 | +2.23% | +4.40% | -0.31% | 52 | — |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $258.90 | +2.13% | +2.01% | -0.38% | 62 | GC |
| V | Visa Inc. | $308.96 | +2.12% | +2.22% | -2.22% | 62 | DC |
| LMND | Lemonade, Inc. | $58.94 | +1.59% | -5.97% | +6.97% | 39 | GC |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | $241.30 | +1.21% | -1.28% | -0.53% | 59 | GC |
| AMT | American Tower Corporation (REI | $176.18 | +1.21% | +2.09% | -5.60% | 43 | DC |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | $343.25 | -0.98% | -7.67% | -13.90% | 32 | — |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | $26.21 | +0.92% | -1.13% | -11.12% | 37 | DC |
| UBER | Uber Technologies, Inc. | $72.38 | +0.91% | +0.63% | -1.98% | 37 | DC |
| O | Realty Income Corporation | $62.79 | +0.90% | +2.63% | -2.88% | 50 | GC |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $426.51 | +0.77% | +9.25% | -1.76% | 47 | DC |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | $307.01 | +0.71% | -1.22% | -7.19% | 38 | GC |
| NFLX | Netflix, Inc. | $99.39 | +0.58% | +3.37% | +1.09% | 63 | DC |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $305.98 | -0.57% | +13.08% | +7.30% | 63 | DC |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | $374.33 | +0.55% | +1.12% | -8.57% | 35 | DC |
| NEE | NextEra Energy, Inc. | $94.17 | +0.53% | +1.39% | +2.35% | 65 | GC |
| BRK-B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New | $479.75 | +0.35% | +0.11% | -3.51% | 43 | DC |
| DV | DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | $10.09 | +0.10% | +6.21% | -6.57% | 53 | DC |
| DDOG | Datadog, Inc. | $116.50 | -0.03% | -1.31% | -9.38% | 31 | DC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLB | State Street Materials Select S | $51.75 | +3.33% | +3.56% | +3.98% | 71 | OB GC |
| XLF | State Street Financial Select S | $51.20 | +2.65% | +3.71% | +2.25% | 72 | OB DC |
| VXUS | Vanguard Total International St | $81.23 | +4.11% | +5.34% | +2.99% | 63 | GC |
| XLI | State Street Industrial Select | $170.44 | +3.75% | +5.39% | -0.01% | 59 | GC |
| XLE | State Street Energy Select Sect | $58.05 | -3.51% | -5.24% | +3.75% | 50 | GC |
| XLK | State Street Technology Select | $141.69 | +3.10% | +6.61% | +1.51% | 56 | — |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | $260.47 | +2.99% | +5.03% | +2.88% | 65 | GC |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 | $606.09 | +2.97% | +5.01% | -0.15% | 56 | — |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 40 | $643.68 | +2.84% | +4.36% | +2.55% | 64 | GC |
| XLY | State Street Consumer Discretio | $110.82 | +2.83% | +1.69% | -3.10% | 51 | DC |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF T | $676.01 | +2.55% | +3.95% | -0.06% | 59 | — |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | $333.70 | +2.54% | +4.02% | +0.14% | 59 | GC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV | State Street Health Care Select | $149.67 | +2.12% | +2.09% | -2.58% | 60 | GC |
| XLP | State Street Consumer Staples S | $82.78 | +1.87% | +0.98% | -3.17% | 54 | GC |
| XLC | State Street Communication Serv | $113.81 | +1.78% | +2.66% | -2.88% | 52 | — |
| XLRE | State Street Real Estate Select | $42.44 | +1.73% | +3.94% | -0.59% | 57 | — |
| XLU | State Street Utilities Select S | $46.78 | +1.10% | +1.94% | +0.55% | 54 | GC |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | $434.53 | +0.63% | +0.99% | -8.04% | 46 | GC |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | $86.92 | +0.32% | +0.67% | -2.20% | 52 | DC |
| BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | $73.72 | +0.19% | +0.45% | -0.64% | 55 | — |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSD | Bitcoin | $71,487.67 | -0.63% | +6.81% | +0.34% | 51 | DC |
| ETHUSD | Ethereum | $2,212.05 | -1.33% | +7.73% | +0.38% | 53 | DC |
| SOLUSD | Solana | $83.26 | -2.79% | +3.60% | -7.56% | 35 | DC |
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1D | 1W | 1M | RSI | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | EUR/USD | $1.17 | +1.10% | +0.82% | +0.44% | 64 | — |
| GBPUSD | GBP/USD | $1.34 | +1.26% | +1.19% | -0.18% | 56 | — |
| USDJPY | USD/JPY | $158.54 | -0.72% | -0.03% | +0.44% | 44 | GC |
| Badge | Name | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| DC | Death Cross | The 50-day moving average has dropped below the 200-day moving average. This means recent prices (~2.5 months) are consistently lower than the longer-term average (~10 months) — momentum has shifted downward. It's a lagging indicator: by the time it triggers, the price drop has already happened. Better at confirming a trend than predicting one. When multiple stocks show death crosses simultaneously, it usually reflects broad market weakness rather than individual company problems. |
| GC | Golden Cross | The opposite of a death cross — the 50-day moving average has risen above the 200-day moving average. This is a bullish signal indicating upward momentum. Like the death cross, it's a lagging indicator that confirms a trend already underway. |
| OB | Overbought (RSI ≥ 70) | The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at or above 70, meaning the asset has had strong recent gains and may be due for a pullback. It doesn't mean the price will drop — assets can stay overbought for extended periods in strong uptrends — but it signals that buying pressure may be getting stretched. |
| OS | Oversold (RSI ≤ 30) | RSI is at or below 30, meaning the asset has had sharp recent declines and may be due for a bounce. This can represent a buying opportunity (value investors look for oversold quality assets), but it can also signal that something is fundamentally wrong. Context matters — oversold in a healthy market is different from oversold during a crisis. |
| Term | Full Name | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | Relative Strength Index | A momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100 that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Calculated over the last 14 trading days. Below 30 = oversold (potential bounce), above 70 = overbought (potential pullback), 30–70 = neutral. RSI is a lagging indicator — it shows what momentum has been, not what it will be. |
| 50-day MA | 50-Day Moving Average | The average closing price over the last 50 trading days (~2.5 months). Represents the short-to-medium-term trend. When the current price is above the 50-day MA, the short-term trend is generally positive. |
| 200-day MA | 200-Day Moving Average | The average closing price over the last 200 trading days (~10 months). Represents the long-term trend. Institutional investors often use this as a key support/resistance level. The relationship between the 50-day and 200-day MA produces death cross and golden cross signals. |
| 1D / 1W / 1M | Percentage Change | Price change over the last 1 day, 1 week, or 1 month respectively. Green = positive (price went up), red = negative (price went down). Large single-day or weekly drops trigger warning signals in the risk engine. |
| P/E Ratio | Price-to-Earnings | The stock price divided by earnings per share. Measures how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. A high P/E can mean the stock is overvalued or that investors expect high future growth. A low P/E can mean the stock is undervalued or that the business is struggling. Always compare P/E within the same industry — tech companies normally have higher P/E than banks. |
| D/E | Debt-to-Equity Ratio | Total debt divided by shareholder equity. Measures how much a company relies on borrowing. Below 0.5 = conservatively financed, 0.5–1.0 = moderate, above 2.0 = heavily leveraged. High debt becomes dangerous when interest rates rise or revenue declines. |
| ROE | Return on Equity | Net income divided by shareholder equity. Measures how efficiently a company generates profit from its shareholders' investment. Above 15% is generally strong. Negative ROE means the company is losing money. |
| Indicator | Value | Change | Signal | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core macro — leading indicators | ||||
| 10Y-2Y Yield SpreadT10Y2Y | 0.50 | -0.02 | neutral | Normal upward-sloping yield curve |
| 10Y-3M Yield SpreadT10Y3M | 0.60 | -0.02 | neutral | Healthy spread between short and long-term rates |
| High Yield Credit SpreadBAMLH0A0HYM2 | 3.12 | +0.07 | neutral | Credit markets calm |
| Initial Unemployment ClaimsICSA | 202,000.00 | -9,000.00 | neutral | Labor market stable |
| Consumer Confidence (UMich)UMCSENT | 56.60 | +0.20 | critical | Consumer confidence at recessionary levels |
| Fed Funds RateFEDFUNDS | 3.64 | +0.00 | neutral | Fed funds rate holding at 3.64% |
| M2 Money SupplyM2SL | 22,667.30 | +198.20 | neutral | Money supply stable or growing |
| Unemployment RateUNRATE | 4.30 | -0.10 | neutral | Labor market healthy |
| Banking system — system-wide aggregates (not CAMELS / not one bank) | ||||
| Total Bank Credit (All Commercial Banks)TOTBKCR | 19,384.31 | +27.62 | neutral | Bank credit level stable vs prior week (aggregate; not institution CAMELS) |
| Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet)WALCL | 6,675,344.00 | +18,183.00 | neutral | Modest weekly change in Fed assets (policy / runoff) |
| Bond market — Treasuries & investment-grade spreads | ||||
| 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity YieldDGS10 | 4.33 | -0.01 | neutral | 10Y in typical range for directional read (official Treasury/FRED) |
| 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity YieldDGS2 | 3.81 | -0.03 | neutral | Policy-sensitive front-end yield (use with 10Y for curve shape) |
| ICE BofA BBB US Corporate OASBAMLC0A4CBBB | 1.08 | +0.01 | neutral | Investment-grade (BBB) spread within non-crisis band |
| inflation | ||||
| CPI All ItemsCPIAUCSL | 327.46 | +0.87 | neutral | CPI near target (+2.2% YoY) |
| PPI All CommoditiesPPIACO | 267.85 | +5.46 | warning | Producer prices rising — input costs increasing |
| supply_chain | ||||
| US Regular Gasoline PriceGASREGW | 4.12 | +0.13 | warning | Gasoline at $4.12/gal — elevated energy costs |
| Brent Crude Oil (FRED)DCOILBRENTEU | 127.61 | +8.05 | critical | Brent at $128 — crisis-level oil prices |
| Industrial Production IndexINDPRO | 102.55 | +0.15 | neutral | Industrial production stable |
| Capacity Utilization: Total IndustryTCU | 76.29 | +0.04 | neutral | Capacity utilization at 76.3% — normal range |
| Manufacturing Employment (All Employees)MANEMP | 12,591.00 | +15.00 | neutral | Manufacturing employment stable |
| Durable Goods New OrdersDGORDER | 315,501.00 | -4,384.00 | bullish | Durable goods orders growing (+6.9% YoY) |
| Total Manufacturing New OrdersAMTMNO | 620,052.00 | +915.00 | neutral | Manufacturing orders flat (+4.5% YoY) |
| PPI: Nitrogenous Fertilizer MaterialsWPU06790303 | 265.66 | -0.08 | neutral | Nitrogen fertilizer PPI stable (+6.5% YoY) |
| Component | Index | YoY% | MoM Chg | Signal | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI Food at Home | 318.99 | +2.4% | +1.40 | neutral | YoY +2.4% — within normal range |
| CPI Food Away from Home | 391.71 | +3.1% | +1.24 | bearish | YoY +3.1% — above Fed 2% target |
| CPI Shelter | 422.94 | +2.4% | +0.98 | neutral | YoY +2.4% — within normal range |
| CPI Rent of Primary Residence | 441.87 | +2.0% | +0.58 | neutral | YoY +2.0% — within normal range |
| CPI Energy | 283.22 | +2.1% | +1.79 | neutral | YoY +2.1% — within normal range |
| CPI Medical Care | 592.55 | +2.8% | +2.94 | neutral | YoY +2.8% — within normal range |
| CPI Used Cars and Trucks | 180.59 | -2.3% | -0.68 | bearish | YoY -2.3% — deflationary (demand weakness or correction) |
| CPI Core (ex Food & Energy) | 333.51 | +2.2% | +0.72 | neutral | YoY +2.2% — within normal range |
| Measure | Value | Signal | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate | 2.34% | neutral | Breakeven at 2.34% — anchored near target |
| UMich Inflation Expectations (1yr) | 3.40% | bearish | Consumer expects 3.4% inflation — above Fed comfort zone |
| Median CPI (Cleveland Fed) | 2.06% | neutral | Median CPI at 2.1% — near or below 2% target |
| Trimmed Mean PCE (Dallas Fed) | 2.43% | neutral | Trimmed Mean PCE at 2.4% — near or below 2% target |
| Ticker | Health | EPS Trend | Insiders | Analyst Upside | D/E | ROE | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPLApple Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +14.1% | 1.03 | 152.0% | 100% |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | strong | improving | selling | +56.9% | 0.32 | 34.4% | 100% |
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +18.6% | 0.16 | 35.7% | 100% |
| AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +27.1% | 0.43 | 22.3% | 86% |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | strong | improving | selling | +47.3% | 0.07 | 101.5% | 100% |
| TSLATesla, Inc. | moderate | neutral | selling | +21.2% | 0.18 | 4.9% | 86% |
| METAMeta Platforms, Inc. | strong | deteriorating | selling | +40.5% | 0.39 | 30.2% | 100% |
| JPMJP Morgan Chase & Co. | weak | deteriorating | selling | +9.4% | — | 16.1% | 71% |
| VVisa Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +27.9% | 0.55 | 54.0% | 86% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | strong | neutral | selling | -0.0% | 0.60 | 35.0% | 86% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | moderate | neutral | selling | +14.9% | 0.18 | -4.1% | 86% |
| DDOGDatadog, Inc. | moderate | deteriorating | selling | +55.8% | 0.34 | 3.3% | 100% |
| HUBSHubSpot, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +67.7% | 0.13 | 2.3% | 100% |
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corporation | strong | deteriorating | selling | +20.8% | 0.13 | 39.7% | 100% |
| AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc. | moderate | deteriorating | selling | +87.7% | 0.59 | 4.5% | 100% |
| TPLTexas Pacific Land Corporation | strong | neutral | buying | -0.6% | 0.01 | 37.2% | 86% |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. | moderate | deteriorating | selling | +9.1% | 0.70 | 51.5% | 100% |
| TOSTToast, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | +40.2% | 0.01 | 18.6% | 100% |
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | strong | neutral | neutral | +26.8% | 1.65 | 101.2% | 71% |
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | moderate | deteriorating | neutral | +17.6% | 0.82 | 12.5% | 86% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | moderate | neutral | selling | +17.7% | — | 6225.0% | 71% |
| DXCMDexCom, Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +32.4% | 0.51 | 34.5% | 86% |
| XOMExxon Mobil Corporation | strong | improving | selling | +2.6% | 0.19 | 11.1% | 100% |
| COPConocoPhillips | strong | improving | selling | +4.6% | 0.38 | 12.4% | 100% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | moderate | improving | selling | +13.9% | 0.34 | 3.7% | 100% |
| WMTWalmart Inc. | moderate | deteriorating | selling | +6.9% | 0.64 | 21.8% | 100% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | strong | improving | selling | +3.6% | 0.60 | 29.7% | 100% |
| PGProcter & Gamble Company (The) | strong | neutral | selling | +15.1% | 0.69 | 31.6% | 86% |
| NKENike, Inc. | moderate | deteriorating | neutral | +48.6% | 0.79 | 16.0% | 86% |
| MCDMcDonald's Corporation | weak | deteriorating | selling | +12.3% | — | — | 71% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +10.9% | 0.28 | 30.2% | 86% |
| CATCaterpillar, Inc. | strong | improving | selling | -3.8% | 2.07 | 43.5% | 100% |
| HONHoneywell International Inc. | moderate | neutral | selling | +8.4% | 2.37 | 26.1% | 86% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | strong | neutral | neutral | +43.1% | 0.44 | 39.9% | 71% |
| GSGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) | moderate | improving | selling | +3.4% | 5.96 | 13.9% | 86% |
| BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc. New | moderate | deteriorating | neutral | +9.0% | 0.19 | 9.8% | 86% |
| XYZBlock, Inc. | weak | deteriorating | selling | +36.9% | 0.40 | 6.0% | 100% |
| AMTAmerican Tower Corporation (REI | weak | deteriorating | neutral | +22.0% | 4.34 | 26.3% | 86% |
| ORealty Income Corporation | moderate | neutral | neutral | +8.0% | 0.74 | 2.7% | 71% |
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | weak | neutral | selling | +0.7% | 1.46 | 8.4% | 86% |
| NFLXNetflix, Inc. | strong | neutral | selling | +14.6% | 0.64 | 42.8% | 86% |
| DISWalt Disney Company (The) | moderate | deteriorating | neutral | +29.8% | 0.41 | 12.0% | 86% |
| FOURShift4 Payments, Inc. | weak | deteriorating | selling | +56.5% | 2.36 | 9.9% | 100% |
| CELHCelsius Holdings, Inc. | strong | neutral | neutral | +85.9% | 0.24 | 5.2% | 71% |
| LMNDLemonade, Inc. | moderate | deteriorating | selling | +11.6% | 0.34 | -29.4% | 100% |
| UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc. | distressed | deteriorating | selling | +65.8% | 2.37 | 7.5% | 100% |
| ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc. | weak | neutral | neutral | -8.2% | 0.94 | -30.1% | 71% |
| MNDYmonday.com Ltd. | strong | deteriorating | neutral | +94.6% | 0.14 | 10.4% | 86% |
| DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | moderate | neutral | selling | +27.5% | 0.09 | 4.6% | 86% |
| CWANClearwater Analytics Holdings, | strong | improving | selling | +1.9% | 0.42 | -2.6% | 100% |
| Severity | Type | Category | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| critical | leading | macro | Macro: Consumer Confidence (UMich) | Consumer confidence at recessionary levels |
| critical | leading | macro | Macro: Brent Crude Oil (FRED) | Brent at $128 — crisis-level oil prices |
| critical | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | HUBS dropped -10.70% this week. |
| critical | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | NKE dropped -18.35% this week. |
| critical | lagging | technical | Death cross breadth | 27 watched assets have 50-day MA below 200-day MA. Names: MSFT, AMZN, META, JPM, V, CRWD, DDOG, HUBS (+19 more). |
| critical | lagging | technical | Signal convergence | Systemic convergence: 31 risk signals across 4 categories firing simultaneously — historically precedes sustained downturns. |
| warning | leading | macro | Macro: PPI All Commodities | Producer prices rising — input costs increasing |
| warning | leading | macro | Macro: US Regular Gasoline Price | Gasoline at $4.12/gal — elevated energy costs |
| warning | leading | fundamental | EPS revisions breadth | 18 watched stocks have deteriorating analyst EPS estimates (30d). Examples: META, JPM, DDOG, DECK, AXON, WSM, UNH, WMT (+10 more). |
| warning | leading | fundamental | Insider selling breadth | 38 watched stocks show insider selling activity. Names: AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, META, JPM (+30 more). |
| warning | leading | fundamental | Fundamental distress breadth | 1 watched stocks flagged as fundamental distress (weak health screen). Examples: UPST. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | VIX Elevated | VIX at 21.0 — elevated anxiety above normal range. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | TSLA dropped -7.67% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | HUBS dropped -4.23% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | AXON dropped -7.81% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | TPL dropped -5.54% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | XOM dropped -4.69% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | XOM dropped -7.92% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | COP dropped -4.97% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | COP dropped -5.14% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | FANG dropped -4.62% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | FANG dropped -5.72% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | LMND dropped -5.97% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | MNDY dropped -5.02% this week. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Daily Drop | XLE dropped -3.51% today. |
| warning | lagging | volatility | Large Weekly Drop | XLE dropped -5.24% this week. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | JPM: RSI at 71.2 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | COST: RSI at 78.1 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | GS: RSI at 77.5 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | CWAN: RSI at 77.7 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | XLF: RSI at 72.4 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| warning | lagging | technical | RSI Overbought | XLB: RSI at 71.2 — overbought, potential pullback ahead. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | HUBS: RSI at 27.2 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | AXON: RSI at 21.2 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | TPL: RSI at 23.4 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | NKE: RSI at 18.9 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | RSI Oversold | MNDY: RSI at 28.1 — oversold, potential bounce opportunity. |
| info | lagging | technical | Cross-category convergence | Risk signals span 4 categories (fundamental, macro, technical, volatility) — cross-domain stress amplification. |
| elevated | leading | macro | Macro: CPI Food Away from Home | YoY +3.1% — above Fed 2% target |
| elevated | leading | macro | Macro: CPI Used Cars and Trucks | YoY -2.3% — deflationary (demand weakness or correction) |
| elevated | leading | macro | Macro: UMich Inflation Expectations (1yr) | Consumer expects 3.4% inflation — above Fed comfort zone |
Yield curve. In the measures we track, the curve is not inverted right now — one classic warning light is off, though other risks can still show up elsewhere.
Corporate borrowing costs. Those spreads are not flashing our “credit stress” rule right now — think calmer corporate funding conditions than in a stressed credit episode (still watch the detailed table above).
Bank lending (aggregate). The latest week did not show an extreme move by our thresholds. This series is the whole banking system’s credit stock, not one institution.
Federal Reserve balance sheet. The latest weekly change was moderate — a backdrop indicator for liquidity and asset holdings.
Treasury yields. The 2-year (sensitive to Fed expectations) is about 3.81%; the 10-year (longer financing and mortgage anchor) about 4.33%. When short rates sit well above long rates, markets are often weighing slower growth or future cuts — compare with the curve rows in the macro table.
Reality check. These sentences are simple rules on top of delayed public data — orientation for people you care about, not trading instructions or deposit advice.
Data points in last 7 days: 84
Starting points from regulators and standard data publishers — useful if you want to read the same underlying official series this report leans on (plus banking disclosure context).
| Short-term 1–4 weeks |
Momentum / technical plays — oversold bounces, mean reversion, technical pattern setups. |
| Medium-term 1–3 months |
Earnings revision plays — improving fundamentals not yet priced in. |
| Long-term 3–12 months |
Value plays — quality businesses at discounted prices with macro tailwinds. |
| Low (1–3) | 3+ signals agree, strong fundamentals, macro supportive, limited downside history. Position: 3–5% |
| Medium (4–6) | 2 signals agree, some data gaps or mixed macro. Position: 1–3% |
| High (7–10) | Single signal, weak fundamentals, adverse macro, or speculative. Position: 0.5–1% |
Opportunities are ranked by risk-adjusted potential, not "low risk / high yield." Higher expected return generally comes with higher risk. The system surfaces the best opportunities at each risk level and is explicit about what could go wrong.